Friday, February 15, 2013

Illinois financial situation? "bad news"

Illinois State Representative Mike Tryon sends out regular newsletters, and this one includes the January 2013 Summary of the Illinois State Economic Outlook from Moody's Analytics.

Mike says, "It's bad news..."

And "Every Illinoisan needs to understand the gravity of the state’s financial situation. It is no longer good enough for people to just know that Illinois is in bad financial shape."


"Despite some favorable signs, Illinois’ economy is in rough shape and the odds of a misstep are high. The state is one of just a handful nationally in danger of falling back into recession. A weak housing market and poor state finances are largely to blame. After a promising start to the recovery, Illinois has been among the Midwest’s weakest and is underperforming the nation in most economic gauges. The state has recouped significantly less of its recessionary job loss than the region or nation, and incomes have also been slower to rise. The obstacles of deleveraging and tight credit are also more pronounced in Illinois because of the soft housing market, and consumers are less of an engine for growth.

"Slower healing in housing and government will cause the state to trail the region and nation by an even larger margin in 2013. Though housing will shift to a significant tailwind for the national economy, it will continue to be a drag in Illinois for much of the year. Without housing as a support, the state will be more vulnerable to manufacturing weakness and federal fiscal austerity. State and local fiscal problems are also a bigger headwind because Illinois faces a huge pension gap and other budget holes.

"Longer term, Illinois has a lot of what of businesses need to thrive—talent, access to customers and capital, transportation—but painful fiscal reforms are needed before it can fully capitalize on these strengths. The state’s demographics present it with another challenge, as an aging population coupled with a trend toward fewer workers hampers job and income gains, which are forecast to be below average over the forecast horizon."

Can't wait to read the whole thing?

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